Exit Polls for Kerry, Voting Machines for Bush

Media blamed Exit Polls, not voting machines made by Republicans

All figures as reported on CNN.com
State Bush, 11 pm (CST) Exit Poll "Actual Vote" Bush, 1 am Exit Poll
DE 40 46 46
SC 53 58 59
AL 58 63 63
NE 62.5 67 66
VT 33.5 39 39
NY 35.5 40 41
WY 65.5 69 68.5
NH 44.5 49 49
MA 33 37 37
NC 52 56 57
RI 35 39 39
OH 48 51 51
NJ 43 46 46
MN 44.5 48 47
CT 41 44 44.5
CO 50 53 52
NV 48 51 50.5
GA 56 59 59
MS 57 60 59
UT 68 71 70
NM 47.5 50 50
VA 52 54 54
FL 50 52 51.5
WV 54 56 55.5
AZ 53 55 55
LA 55 57 57
MO 52 54 53
ID 66 68 68.5
WA 44 46 46
IL 42.5 44 44.5
IA 48.5 50 50.5
KY 58.5 60 59.5
IN 58.5 60 59.5
MI 46.5 48 48
MT 58 59 57
OK 65 66 65.5
AR 53.5 54 54
DC 8.5 9 9.5
CA 43.5 44 45
ME 44.5 45 45
WI 49 49 49
TN 58 57 58
OR 48 47 48
SD 61 60 60
TX 62 61 61
KS 64.5 63 63
HI 46.5 45 46.5
ND 64.5 63 63
States where exit polls predicted Bush getting more votes than he did: 7
States where exit polls predicted Bush getting less votes than he did: 42
Factoring in 1.5 percent margin of error: 30 for Bush, 0 for Kerry



Exit Poll Voting Map - showing all the states that probably voted "blue" (Ohio, Florida, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, possibly Colorado) but were flipped via rigged ballot machines

The same map "weighted" to show population densities




Tuesday, November 23, 2004
from the New York Times

An international election observer mission - from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the European Parliament, the NATO Parliamentary Assembly and the Council of Europe - released a preliminary report on Monday declaring that the election did not meet democratic standards.
The observers' findings were seconded by Republican Senator Richard G. Lugar of Indiana, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Citing the disturbing fact that official results diverged sharply from a range of surveys of voters at polling places, Lugar said, "A concerted and forceful program of election-day fraud and abuse was enacted with either the leadership or cooperation of governmental authorities."
Other prominent Western observers were unsparing in their criticism of the state's conduct of the election.
"Fundamental flaws in Ukraine's presidential election process subverted its legitimacy," the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs, sponsored by the Democratic Party in the United States, declared in its preliminary report. The institute, cited "systematic intimidation, overt manipulation and blatant fraud" that were "designed to achieve a specific outcome irrespective of the will of the people."
-- New York Times

From GregPalast.com: This reporter was unable to reach Senator Lugar regarding the inconsistency of official election results and exit polls in the USA; the intimidation of minority voters in Florida and Ohio; nor the failure to count two million ballots cast, half by African-American voters, in America's first post-democratic election held earlier this month.
Eastern bloc observers noted that balloting in Ohio, New Mexico and Florida did not meet Ukrainian standards, but applauded America's attempt to restore democratic institutions after the overthrow of elected government in 2000.
Greg Palast is author of the New York Times bestseller, The Best Democracy Money Can Buy, now available on a 5 CD audio set read by Ed Asner, Alec Baldwin, Jello Biafra, Al Franken, Janeane Garofalo, Amy Goodman, Jim Hightower, Congresswoman Cynthia McKinney, Alexandra Paul and Shiva Rose. To hear a segment of the book or receive Greg's investigative reports click here:


Thousands on brink of revolt as West challenges result
From Jeremy Page in Kiev November 23, 2004

MORE than 100,000 opposition supporters took over the centre of Kiev last night to protest over the results of a presidential election that Western observers said was rigged in favour of Viktor Yanukovych, the Russian-backed Prime Minister.
Protesters set up hundreds of tents behind makeshift barricades along the main avenue to Independence Square. Lorries brought generators, sleeping bags, waterproof sheets and food, all provided by the headquarters of the Western-leaning opposition leader, Viktor Yushchenko, in what was a highly organised operation.
Richard Lugar, President Bush’s personal representative at the election, called
for a review of the results. He accused the Government of engineering defeat for Mr Yushchenko, and a US State Department spokesman said that Washington was deeply concerned about the elections.

DAILY KOS - The assertion by pundits/Bushies that exit polling was 'way off', and thus, exit polls, which showed an easy Kerry victory in both Ohio and Florida, were incorrectly skewed and did not represent the electorate, is completely bogus. This is disproved in minutes by simply noting the entire rest of the suite of exit polls conducted by AP and distributed to the news media. . .
Notice, if you will, that states with a narrow or wide Bush margin of victory not called Ohio or Florida, project perfectly. Missouri leans to Bush in exit polls, and leaned to him in the vote. Tennessee likewise was favorable to Bush in exit polls, and it showed in the final results with a clear Bush margin of victory. Pick a state, any state, there is not one single exit poll off by more than a few percentage points in any semi-competitive race. Not one.
Except two: Ohio and Florida, the latter of which has already been "awarded" to Bush, and the former, which appears to nearly be a lock for him . . . George Bush's win in each of these 2 states is nowhere near what exit polls suggest. In Ohio, Kerry had a small but noticeable lead with both male and female voters, a rare thing for him as males have tended to favor Bush in this election by a small margin. Likewise, independent voters clearly broke for Kerry, by a 21 percent margin, 60-39. This is not anywhere near the result we are seeing now, and along with Florida, whom I will get to in a moment, it is a clear and blatant sign of voter fraud. I don't use that most dangerous of "F" words lightly, but I must call a wolf a wolf and a sheep a sheep, and this whole setup stinks like Karl Rove after he's ran 15 feet.

All exit polls predict Kerry victory, though early polls not considered reliable
Kerry seen as presidential victor in early exit polls

By John Byrne | RAW STORY Editor

Sen. John Kerry looks to make a victory of the
electoral college, according to all sets of exit polls
conducted by a consortium of six media organizations
(the National Election Pool) that RAW STORY acquired
earlier today, from the six major networks who
conducted the polls.The first, third and final round give Kerry a wide
berth in all critical swing states. The second round
put Kerry ahead in Ohio and Florida, but only by a one
point margin.Exit polls, in which voters are interviewed after they
vote, typically favor Republicans in early voting, as
Republicans by-and-large tend to vote earlier in the
day. This may spell bad news for President Bush,
though itís also important to consider that early
polls are routinely unreliable; they are not actual
voting returns. Bush currently leads in actual voting
returns.All of the polls put Kerry ahead in Florida, Ohio, and
New Mexico. The two for which polling was available
for other states had Kerry ahead in Pennsylvania,
Minnesota and Wisconsin. In the polls received, Bush
leads in Colorado, Louisiana and Arizona. Iowa is a
tie.A source connected to the White House has dismissed
the early polls as ìskewedî and told a conservative
magazine reporter that Bush would certainly win both
Florida and Ohio.Here are the first exit polls, confirmed from sources
in both parties, as leaked to RAW STORY. The first
number is the percentage of voters supporting Kerry,
the second are those supporting Bush.

AZ 45-55
CO 48-51
LA 42-57
MI 51-48
WI 52-48
PA 60-40
OH 52-48
FL 51-48
MICH 51-47
NM 50-48
MINN 58-40
WISC 52-43
IOWA 49-49
NH 57-41

Here are the second polls:

U.S.: 50-49
FL: 50-49
OH: 50-49
CO: 48-50
NM: 50-48

Here are the third polls:

Confirmed:Florida: 50/49 - KERRY
Ohio: 50/49 - KERRY
Michigan: 51/47 - KERRY
Minnesota: 58/40 - KERRY
New Mexico: 50/48 - KERRY
Pennsylvania: 54/45 - KERRY
Wisconsin: 51/46- KERRY
Colorado: 46/53 - BUSH
North Carolina: 49/51 - BUSH
Unconfirmed:IA: 50/48 - KERRY
NH: 58/41 - KERRY
ME: 55/44 - KERRY
NV: 48/49 - BUSH
AR: 45/54 - BUSH

And the final 6 p.m. polls:

PA 53 46
FL 51 49
NC 48 52
OH 51 49
MO 46 54
AK 47 53
MI 51 47
NM 50 49
LA 43 56
CO 48 51
AZ 45 55
MN 54 44
WI 52 47
IA 49 49



Updated Late Afternoon Numbers
Mucho flattering to Kerry; plus Nader makes an appearance.
By Jack Shafer
Updated Tuesday, Nov. 2, 2004, at 4:28 PM PT

Kerry 51
Bush 49

Kerry 51
Bush 49

Kerry 52
Bush 46
Nader 1

Kerry 53
Bush 46

Kerry 50
Bush 49

Kerry 51
Bush 48
Nader 1

Kerry 52
Bush 46
Nader 2

New Hampshire
Kerry 54
Bush 44
Nader 1

New Mexico
Kerry 50
Bush 48
Nader 1

Kerry 49
Bush 50
Nader 1

Kerry 45
Bush 54
Nader 1

Kerry 47
Bush 52

New York
Kerry 62
Bush 36
Nader 2

Kerry 49
Bush 48
Nader 1

New Jersey
Kerry 54
Bush 44
Nader 1

West Virginia
Kerry 45
Bush 54
Nader 1

Why is Slate running these numbers? See this morning's piece. ... 4:20 p.m. PT

Late Afternoon Exit Polls: It's a tight squeeze: In the national exit poll, Kerry leads Bush 51-48. In Wisconsin he's up by three, and in Ohio and Florida he leads by one.

Exit Pollsters Consider What, If Anything, Went Wrong

Published: November 04, 2004 11:00 AM EST NEW YORK (AP) News organizations promised Wednesday to look into why their Election Day exit polls showed an initial surge for John Kerry, but also blamed bloggers for spreading news that gave a misleading view of the presidential race.
The exit poll data was delivered at several points Tuesday to the National Election Pool -- owned by The Associated Press and the networks, ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, and Fox News Channel -- by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International. The pool hired the companies for exit polling after the networks' blown calls on election night 2000 and exit-poll systems failures in 2002.
The first wave showed Kerry with a lead of three percentage points in Florida and four points in Ohio -- both battleground states won by President Bush when the votes were actually counted, giving the president his margin of victory.
"Once one part of it is in question and is wrong, it kind of puts the whole thing in question," said Marty Ryan, Fox News Channel's executive producer for political coverage. "It was disappointing. ... During the primary season, it worked very well for us, we were happy with it. But that was not good last night."
Other network representatives said their confidence in NEP remained unshaken.
The Florida and Ohio exit-poll results, along with those in other states where Kerry was strong, were quickly disseminated on Web sites such as Slate, the Drudge Report, Wonkette.com, Atrios.blogspot.com, and Command Post.
Some of these sites cautioned readers not to make too much of the information. The Command Post delivered the news under the headline "Grain of Salt." Drudge removed the numbers almost as quickly as they were posted. And Slate warned: "these early exit poll numbers do not divine the name of the winner."
"I didn't have any real compunction about putting it up there," said Alan Nelson, co-manager of The Command Post. "I didn't struggle with the decision, because I knew it was going to become a global news item within about 30 seconds.
"Our approach is: We post, you decide," Nelson said.
But the people who read these numbers -- among them, thousands of ordinary Americans with an intense interest in the election -- put too much faith into them and leaped to conclusions, said Bill Schneider, CNN's polling expert.
"I think people believed them, and it's particularly the case with Internet bloggers," said Kathy Frankovic, CBS News' polling director. "That's unfortunate because it sets up expectations that may or may not be met. I think it's a good exercise because it reminded people that early exit polls can be unreliable."
Bloggers picked out different numbers to use for their purposes, said Joseph Lenski, who ran the poll with partner Warren Mitofsky for the NEP. As the day wore on, later waves of exit polling showed the race tightening.
"Doing an early poll is like reporting the results of the game at halftime," Lenski said. "You only have about a third of the information. No other survey research is held to that level of accuracy."
The NEP had enough concerns that its early exit polls were skewing too heavily toward Kerry that it held a conference call with news organizations mid-afternoon urging caution in how that information was used. Early polls in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Connecticut were then showing a heavier Kerry vote than anticipated.
Pollsters anticipate a post-mortem to find out why that happened. Some possibilities: Democrats were more eager to speak to pollsters than Republicans, or Kerry supporters tended to go to the polls earlier in the day than Bush voters.
"The exit poll is one of several tools that AP uses to call races," said Kathleen Carroll, the news agency's senior vice president and executive editor. "After every election, we look back at how all our tools worked. We'll be doing that in the next few days with our election experts and our colleagues at the National Election Pool, and expect to be able to address any concerns in that process."
Copyright 2004 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.