Peak Oil Timing
the key points are
(1) the oil will take decades to run out,
(2) the exact shape of these curves will probably be different than these
predictions,
(3) the issue is when supply no longer keeps up with demand, not when
it runs out, and
(4) after peak oil, the OPEC countries in the Middle East will have most
of the remaining oil
Peak Oil is not about "when the oil will be gone" but
rather when demand begins to outstrip supply and production / extraction
peaks globally. There probably will be oil extraction for several
more decades, although the current perceived abundance (one can buy as
much oil as one can afford) is likely to last only a few more years. While
petroleum geologists debate the exact timing of the global peak (ranging
from essentially now through the middle of the next decade), there isn't
any debate about the reality of Peak Oil. Even the most pollyanna view
puts the peak at around 2030, although the most experts estimate that
somewhere between 2005 and 2012 is more accurate. The pessimists among
the geologists who said in the late 1990s that 2010 would be the peak
may have been wrong, since there is evidence that 2000 may have been the
precise peak, with the rest of this decade being a "plateau"
close to 2000 levels before the extraction rates begin their inevitable
decline. One factor for determining future levels will be economic forces
-- if the global economy crashes into a depression, this would reduce
energy consumption rates, making the peak lower and longer lasting (the
best possible scenario for using some of the oil as a bridge toward the
renewable energy, locally based society). If the economy heats up, then
the peak could be higher but shorter, with the downslope coming sooner
and steeper. Whatever the exact year, the days of wasteful overconsumption
are limited
The only “debate” about peak oil is the exact timing:
from a long term historical perspective, it does not matter whose predictions
about the exact year of peak and decline ultimately prove to be correct
A child born in 1990, if s/he lives a long, healthy life, will see the end of the age of oil
Richard Heinberg, Dec 2, 2004
www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/120204_heinberg_comment.shtml
"I have been looking at virtually the same facts that Mike points to, and I must say that the scenario he describes is not unrealistic given the factors in play. The economic situation for the US is truly dire. The house of cards may hold up for months, even 2-3 years. But on the other hand, we could very well be seeing the beginning of the great unraveling, to use Krugman's phrase. And given the nature of the current US administration, economic hardship is likely to lead to war as their only practical means of deflecting blame. I can think of milder outcomes over the short term than the one Mike describes, but to tell you the truth I myself am plenty worried right now. I have never seen this dangerous a confluence of factors in my lifetime."
www.energybulletin.net/25544.html
Published on 1 Feb 2007 by Bloomberg. Archived on 1 Feb 2007.
Simmons says global oil supply has peaked
by Rhonda Schaffler
Matthew Simmons, chairman of Simmons & Co. International in Houston, talked yesterday with Bloomberg's Rhonda Schaffler about the need to address energy use, his view that global supply has peaked and the likelihood oil prices could reach as much as $300 a barrel. (Source: Bloomberg)
[Transcription of the first few minutes of the interview]
Q: Tell me how you draw your conclusion that at this point we've hit Peak Oil.
A: If you look at the numbers and you follow what's going on starting with Mexico's giant Cantarell field which is now in a very serious state of decline and then you look at the North Sea and you see just the UK and Norway, it's pretty obvious to me that those three areas alone could actually decline by between 800,000 and 1 million barrels a day in 2007.
That pretty well wipes out almost all the production gains coming onstream and in implicit in that it assumes that everyone else is flat.
So I think basically too many of our oil fields are too old. Too many now are in decline. The Middle East is basically out of capacity. they're some projects that are being worked upon, but most don't hit the market until 2008, 2009 and we're running out of time.
... I am firmly of the belief that over the course of the next year or two, this issue of peak oil will replace global warming as an issue that we're all worrying, debating and talking about.
www.theoildrum.com/node/2239
Matt Simmons on Bloomberg: Peak Oil is Now and Oil Is WAY Too Cheap
Posted by Prof. Goose on February 1, 2007
(video of interview with Simmons)
GreyZone on February 2, 2007 - 1:30pm
Now here is a fact - for almost 21 months we have been producing less
oil than the May 2005 peak figure. Yet prices have not skyrocketed. This
is despite a growing US economy, a growing Chinese economy, a growing
Indian economy, a growing Japanese economy, and a very slowly growing
EU economy. This 21 months of roughly flat production is similar to what
post-peak would look like to the markets. Why haven't prices exploded
since May 2005?
I don't have data about what future prices will do but the current situation
certainly argues that the assumption of skyrocketing prices needs some
sort of model to justify it since the recent market history actually argues
against it. In fact, what we have seen is the poor of the world dropping
out of the oil market entirely, leaving more for the growing economies.
I am not at all certain that skyrocketing prices will occur post-peak
immediately. Rather, I think prices will skyrocket and even large scale
wars will ensue once there are no more poor nations to be squeezed off
stage. When will that occur? I have no idea. But if we are post-peak today,
we could meander along for years in slowly increasing prices as more and
more of the world "goes Zimbabwe" (as Bob likes to phrase it)
until one of the major players is facing being squeezed off stage. Then
and only then will we see the huge bidding wars that I believe will turn
into physical wars. For now the bidding wars are against the world's poor
and they lose out with just a few dollars change in price. So while a
price of $70 per barrel would annoy us, it would drive tens of millions
more third world people out of the age of petroleum.
www.kunstler.com/Mags_Forecast2007.html
www.fcnp.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=702&Itemid=33
The Peak Oil Crisis: 2006 in Review
By Tom Whipple
Thursday, 04 January 2007
The 2006 price spike is widely perceived as being caused by an excess of speculation. Hedge fund managers read forecasts of a bang-up hurricane season in the offing and that, coupled with greater-than-normal turmoil in the Middle East, led them to speculate wildly in oil futures. When the Middle East turmoil subsided a bit and the hurricanes failed to appear as advertised, oil prices collapsed. All this of course is perfectly true, but is only part of the story.
Largely unnoticed was the underlying supply and demand situation, and a new factor: oil affordability. The final returns won’t be in for several months, but it is beginning to look as if world oil production stayed about the same or increased insignificantly during 2006. Consumption in China, Russia, and the Gulf oil states increased while staying about the same in the industrialized states of North America, Europe and Asia.
With flat production and steady or increasing consumption in those countries that publish detailed reports, something had to give or else we would be seeing considerably higher oil prices. The give came in the underdeveloped world where $20 or $30 oil was affordable for generating electricity, running pumps, and for cooking, but $60 or $70 per barrel oil was not. Again, the returns are not in yet, but anecdotal evidence is accumulating that many parts of Africa, Central America, and Asia are starting to shut down. For these peoples, the oil age, such as it was, is already over.
www.howestreet.com/articles/index.php?article_id=1959
Whiskey & Gunpowder
by Byron W. King
Pittsburgh, PA
Word just came out that Kuwait, long regarded as home to some of the world's largest reserves of petroleum, may possess only half the amount of oil reserves that it officially has been stating for many years. ...
Yet another way of stating the matter, and in a macro sense, the amount of estimated world oil reserves just fell by 5%. This 5% drop in reserves is the equivalent of almost 20 months worth of total cumulative worldwide oil production and consumption, based on the current world oil use of about 84 million barrels per day. From the standpoint of the world reaching the absolute Peak Oil point, we now live in August 2007, not January 2006.
Current Situation & 2005 Projections
by Dale Allen Pfeiffer
www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/122904_current_situation.shtml
Several new large fields should come online this year, adding extra capacity. These are the last of the 500 million barrel mega fields, since none has been discovered in the past few years. Eighteen new mega projects are due to start producing this year, followed by eleven more is 2006. However, 2007 will see the opening of only three new projects, followed by three more in 2008. This will not keep up with declining production in older fields, much less the increase in demand. ....
so for the next two years prices will tend to be soft, though they will remain volatile due to production disruptions caused by natural catastrophe, warfare and a host of other causes. In other words, we may have a cushion for the next couple years. But how are we going to use it? If we provoke supply disruptions, the price will bounce up. Once the disruption is over, prices will drop. ....
Oil production will begin its decline in 2007 or 2008. At that point repression, both at home and abroad, will begin in earnest. The economy will soon collapse completely (if it does not do so before 2007). People will feel the crunch, and they will become desperate. If you are not prepared in a supportive community intent on transitioning to self-sufficiency, then your chances of surviving are drastically reduced.
Beyond economic collapse followed by civil unrest, it is hard to say what will happen as energy production declines..... It is nearly impossible to say how the elite will play this out. It is to be hoped that we won't be left in a totalitarian world where none of us is even allowed the freedom to seek our own sustainable balance. It is also to be hoped that human society does not break down entirely, leaving some small communities attempting to survive while surrounded by predators.
Find some place or some way to grow as much of your own food as you can, where your neighbors are supportive. Plan to do without gas or electricity. Rediscover the old ways. Dust off those back copies of Mother Earth News stacked in the attic. It is time to prepare.